Police minister says publication of maps of crimes and antisocial behaviour on every street in England and Wales is a 'very important step in accountability and transparency'

Detailed maps providing a monthly snapshot of crime and antisocial behaviour on every street across England and Wales from today are "putting power in the hands of people", Nick Herbert, minister for policing and criminal justice, said today.

Herbert said the publication of the maps, which are accessible by typing a postcode into the police.uk website, was a "very important step in accountability and transparency" and would help ensure the police is responsive "to what the local community wants".

Home Office ministers say it is unprecedented for such interactive crime maps to be published for an entire country and that it has been done without compromising the privacy of victims and witnesses, or having a negative effect on house prices.

This morning, the maps were receiving 75,000 hits a minute and had seen 4.5 million in one hour alone, Herbert told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

The maps also provide contact details for neighbourhood policing teams, information about forthcoming beat meetings, CCTV footage of local incidents, and in some cases even a Twitter feed from beat officers.

Quarterly crime statistics have been available online at ward or local police division level for some time, but the £300,000 project launched today gives information about different types of crime and, for the first time, incidents of antisocial behaviour down to street level.

The maps give street-by-street results for six types of offence, including burglary, robbery, vehicle crime, violence, and antisocial behaviour. Sexual offences are included in "other crime" to avoid revealing the location of victims.

Herbert said the introduction of crime-mapping on this scale was the second major element in the coalition's police reform plans to improve accountability, alongside the introduction of elected police and crime commissioners.

Herbert, an advocate of street-level crime-mapping since seeing it work in Los Angeles, said there was "huge interest" among people wanting to know what is happening in their neighbourhood.

While national crime statistics could be quite meaningless, it was "very relevant" to know there was a spate of burglaries in your area and then find out what's being done about it, he said.

"I think we are putting power in the hands of people by giving them the information but more than that, we are also giving them information about what they can do."

He added that the maps could help to achieve a "connection" between the police and the public.

"The police rely on information, they rely on active citizens to be telling them, to be taking part in things like neighbourhood watch," said Herbert.

"We need to build this bridge and get communities and the police working together and we want the police to be responsive to what the local community wants."

Six "trailblazing" forces are to go further in developing crime maps.

The home secretary's own Thames Valley police are to map trends in late-night antisocial behaviour; Hampshire are to provide daily access to crime data; Lincolnshire and West Yorkshire are to explore providing information about convicted offenders alongside details of crimes; Surrey are to pioneer mobile phone use of the maps; and Leicestershire are developing an online case tracking system for victims.

The data can be broken down by neighbourhood or narrowed down to individual street level, revealing the shifting patterns of local crime hotspots over time.

Glover's Court in Preston emerges as one of the streets with most recorded crime – 152 incidents in December, 44 of which involved violent offences.

The unusual pattern of 148 asbo incidents in Bolnore Road, Haywards Heath, is thought to relate to the way hoax calls are recorded centrally at the local police station by Sussex police force.

The information commissioner, Christopher Graham, who was consulted by the police over the exercise, said last night that blocks and zones were the most privacy-friendly way of crime-mapping, and that a strong public interest case would have to be made for the use of more intrusive indicators.

"I welcome the drive to improve accountability through greater transparency. Crime-mapping can be an effective means of letting people know what crimes are taking place in their local area, although care needs to be taken as this can potentially have an impact on the privacy of individuals such as victims or witnesses," he said.

Research published today by the National Policing Improvement Agency, based on a trial involving 7,434 members of the public, shows that such web-based crime maps do not fuel fear of crime.

Herbert challenged the idea that publishing such data could hit house prices – a concern voiced by estate agents in the past.

"That can't be a reason not to tell the public what is happening," he said. "Crime cannot be swept under the carpet."

Insurance companies, however, may come to rely on them in setting premiums.

New guidelines from the information commissioner's office (ICO) say that those who publish crime maps need to have procedures in place to deal with concerns from victims of crime that their identity has been revealed, or householders who believe their property has been incorrectly labelled as a crime hotspot.

The ICO says the most invasive practice would be to pinpoint a particular household as being linked to a particular crime. He warns against pinpointing an address as being indicative that a crime took place in a general area.

Stark statistics The crime map for London N1, which includes the Guardian's King's Cross offices, shows a total of 1,792 crimes and incidents of antisocial behaviour in December, making it a high-crime neighbourhood.

The figures include 681 incidents of antisocial behaviour, 240 violent crimes, 103 burglaries and 63 robberies. It gives contact details for the local safer neighbourhood team led by Sergeant Dave Hamill and offers CCTV footage from the Met currently available on YouTube of recent crimes, including footage of a man rape investigators want to talk to.

• BP makes first annual loss since 1992
• Firm sets aside $41bn to cover spill costs
• Half US refining capacity, including Texas City, to be sold
• Fourth-quarter dividend of 7 cents in line with expectations

BP will pay a dividend for the first time since the Gulf oil spill crisis, the company announced today as it reported its first annual loss in almost 20 years.

Bob Dudley, BP's chief executive, outlining the company's new strategy, also said that it would be selling half of its US refining capacity.

Refineries to be sold include Texas City, where an explosion in 2005 resulted in the death of 15 workers.

BP said that it would pay a 7 cents (4.36p) a share dividend for the fourth quarter, about half the value of previous payouts and in line with analysts' expectations. BP suspended payouts for the second and third quarters last year to help pay for the clean-up costs in the Gulf, following intense political pressure from the White House.

"We believe now is the right time to resume payment of a dividend to our shareholders," said BP chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg. "We have chosen a prudent level that reflects the company's strong underlying financial and operating performance but also recognises the need to fully meet our obligations in the Gulf of Mexico and to maintain financial flexibility."

The loss of BP's dividend was a blow to millions of investors and pensioners, as it accounted for roughly one sixth of the total payout from FTSE 100 companies.

For the fourth quarter, the company said it made an underlying profit of $4.4bn, about a third more than the same period last year, but below analyst expectations. Shares in the company fell almost 1% in early trading to 481p.

For the whole year, taking into account a $40.9bn charge for the Gulf spill, the company made a loss of $4.9bn – its first loss since 1992. BP's previous spill cost estimate, given in November, was $39.9bn.

As part of the "Future BP" strategy, the company said it would significantly increase investment in exploration and focus on its upstream business.

Having sold more than $20bn of assets, many of them mature and declining oil and gas fields, it said production this year would decline to around 3.4m barrels of oil and gas a day, from 3.67m in 2010.

It added that its upstream investments in plans to explore in places such as the Arctic offered the prospect of higher production growth from a smaller base. The company's previous production plan was to increase the 4m barrels of daily oil production it achieved in 2009 by as much as 2% over the next few years.

Dudley will face a grilling by the media and the City today over its plans in Russia after he dramatically unveiled a controversial alliance with the Kremlin-controlled oil company Rosneft last month. BP's existing Russian partners, the billionaire oligarchs who own half of TNK-BP, yesterday voted to withhold the $1.8bn dividend from the joint venture.

BP did not give more details about the Rosneft alliance in this morning's statement to shareholders, saying only that TNK-BP continued to perform strongly. It added that this joint venture will continue to "seek long-term growth" through plans to develop vast oil and gas reserves in the Yamal peninsula in Northern Russia, for example. However the Russian oligarchs claim that the Rosneft deal breaches the shareholders' agreement which they say requires BP to offer them first refusal over any business opportunities in Russia.

BP said its immediate priority was to embed world-class safety and risk management systems across its operations. It added that it remained committed to meeting all its costs and obligations arising from the Gulf spill and the Texas City refinery disaster, which resulted in new safety regulations for the company.

Pupils as young as 16 are worried that the A-level subjects they choose may harm their chances of a university place later on. Why is there no clear information for them?

Universities reveal their A-level preferences

'Only a few months ago, I had no idea what I wanted to do in life," says Jade Campbell, 15, as she describes filling in her A-level choices form. "But I had to decide my plans for my whole life really quickly when I picked my A-levels. I know universities are getting more selective about the subjects you study, so I had to think about which subjects would give me the best chance of a place."

Jade's classmates at Bethnal Green Technology College in east London are all feeling the pressure of important choices. "I'm only 16, but I feel so much stress to make the right decision," says Amanda Cozer, who joined the college two years ago after moving from Brazil. "Once you've picked A-levels you can't go back, your decision is made." Across the classroom, Sufayan Deta and Tommy Vu, both 15, sound panicked. "I didn't know that some unis say you have to do certain A-levels," says Sufayan, who wants to study either accounting or business studies at university. "I'm really worried now."

With record demand for undergraduate courses, universities have tightened their admissions policies. Some have started disregarding subjects such as general studies, while others publish lists of "preferred" or "less preferred" A-levels. Year 11s who are intending to apply to university need to research qualification requirements now – but there are growing complaints that the information they need isn't easily available.

"It's hard to know exactly what universities want from us," says Amanda, who wants to study journalism or languages. "I tried to research what A-levels would give me the best chances of getting on to those courses, but it wasn't easy to find. I spent ages on the websites of Cambridge, Oxford, Leeds, Liverpool and Bristol. Cambridge was the clearest, but on many of the others I just found lots of links, with the information all over the place, or not there at all. Because there was often no clear list, I ended up looking up lots of individual courses, even though I'm not yet sure exactly what I'd like to do."

Admissions tutors say the information students need – whether they are at the Ucas application stage or just choosing their A-level subjects – is readily available in prospectuses and on websites. But Ofqual, the qualifications watchdog, says there's a lack of transparency. At the publication of its chief regulator's report last month, the chief executive, Isabel Nisbet, said: "Students are not clairvoyants. They need clear information on which qualifications they need for their chosen university courses."

Teachers, too, say their jobs have been made tougher by uncertainty surrounding university requirements. Sarah Snaydon, deputy head of sixth form at Dane Court grammar school in Kent, says teachers feel as if there are "shifting goal posts" in higher education. "I wish we knew what admission tutors want," she says. "Universities are getting ever so picky with their requirements, but worse than that is that those requirements are constantly changing and tough to find out. This year, for example, for the first time on some courses we've seen year 12s being asked for a B at GCSE maths, but that requirement wasn't in place when they actually studied GCSEs."

The Ucas Apply website lists qualification requirements for individual courses, but that's not always helpful for year 11s, Snaydon adds. "At that stage, students tend not to know exactly what they want to do where, but they need guidance from universities about the kind of A-levels they need for subject areas. If the information was all in one place, it would be a lot more transparent. And the students hit hardest are those who don't come from an 'educationally aware' background."

In part, it's not an easy task for universities – their myriad courses will, of course, have different requirements and most don't rule out particular A-levels, but say some are acceptable only in certain combinations. For example, medicine courses will demand at least two science A-levels (or equivalent). However, not every English course will insist on candidates having English A-level, and in fact, for arts courses, many admissions tutors say they prefer applicants with a range of subjects.

The most helpful universities have a list of A-levels they "prefer" over others. The less "preferred" are usually non-traditional subjects such as business studies or art and design. The University of Sheffield, for example, names 28 subjects – including engineering, music technology, applied science and applied business – that it will accept only if students have two other A-levels not on that list. The London School of Economics has a "non-preferred" list including accounting, communication studies, home economics, law and travel and tourism, but accepts candidates with one of those A-levels if the others are from its "preferred" list.

Likewise, at Cambridge University, Geoff Parks, director of admissions, says: "No applicant would be rejected because they were taking one particular A-level. However, their A-level combination might rule them out for some, or even all, of our courses." Cambridge recommends chemistry, English literature, history, languages, maths, physics, further maths and biology for year 11s who "want to keep their options open". For wannabe arts undergraduates, it flags up English literature, history, languages and maths, while scientists "are advised to take at least two, and ideally three, of biology, chemistry, maths and physics".

It's a similar story at University College London, which says candidates must have at least two A-levels from their "preferred" list of 76 subjects, which includes history, maths and Biblical Hebrew. The university adds: "If you are unable to offer a minimum of two A-level subjects from the list, this does not prevent you from applying to UCL, but it will be at the discretion of the admissions selector to determine whether your application is sufficiently strong to warrant further consideration."

However, students say these lists are confusing. "I want to study psychology or Oriental studies at university, so I started looking up what A-levels I'd need for those," says Campbell. "I looked at the websites for Oxford, Cambridge and Soas [School of Oriental and African Studies], but instead of having a list of what they want, they say "we prefer this" or "these A-levels are less favoured". They should clearly put what the requirements are so we don't keep wasting our time searching, or theirs applying for a course with the wrong A-levels."

To avoid knocking out a whole spectrum of the UK's HE institutions, year 11s should avoid picking similar A-levels. "Subjects with significantly overlapping curricula, for example economics and business studies, should be avoided," says Peter Dunn, spokesman for Warwick University. "And in general terms, subjects with a higher proportion of assessed written work are likely to provide a better preparation than more practical subjects for studying a degree at Warwick."

The other decision many year 11s face is whether to study general studies to boost chances of a place at university. Alongside critical thinking, general studies is the A-level universities most often rule out. City University London, Warwick, Reading, Oxford and Exeter are among the many institutions that do not accept general studies for any of their undergraduate courses. Cambridge accepts general studies and critical thinking A-levels only as a fourth, extra subject – but adds confusingly that it sometimes includes critical thinking in students' conditional offers.

Staffordshire University, meanwhile, says: "General studies is accepted for all of our courses – no A-levels are looked upon less favourably here," and the universities of Bedfordshire, Liverpool, Lincoln, Cumbria, Westminster and Wolverhampton are among others with the same stance. But some institutions are less clear: the University of Bolton, for example, says: "We look at academic subjects first, but we do consider general studies in that context." The University of Sussex says it "welcomes applications from students taking the full spread of A-levels, including general studies." But its spokesman adds: "When setting offers, we would rather 'protect' key subjects than exclude particular A-levels. For example, if an applicant applied for international relations and was taking A-levels in history, art, maths and general studies, we would normally ask them to achieve AAB, including history."

Other qualifications are up for debate, too. While all universities accept qualifications other than A-levels, such as the International Baccalaureate and Scottish Highers, they don't all take every qualification. City University, for example, is typical in saying BTecs are "generally more vocational … so may be equally good preparation for professional courses, though not so for purer academic ones."

It says there is "not usually sufficient maths in any of the BTecs for one to gain sufficient preparation for a maths degree, but most of the BTec IT courses would be fine for a computing course." By contrast, Canterbury Christ Church, Bolton, Staffordshire and Sheffield Hallam are among the institutions that welcome BTecs as well as other qualifications.

With such a minefield to negotiate, it's no surprise that year 11s, their parents and teachers are left feeling confused. For now, the best way for students to tackle their A-level choices is by talking to teachers and careers advisers, and trying to work out the kinds of courses and universities they might want to apply to. From there, someone keen to study a popular course such as medicine, for example, should check requirements of courses at a range of institutions to see which A-levels are obligatory, and whether any, like general studies, would block their chances.

For those considering less popular courses or universities, the issue may be less pressing. But those students most likely to be left behind are those who, coming from disadvantaged backgrounds or with unaware parents, don't know that their university options are being whipped out of reach as early as year 11. That issue is leading to a growing campaign for universities to be clearer about their requirements. At the moment, as Ofqual's Nesbit puts it: "Some students, who are able to get really sophisticated advice and guidance against other disadvantaged pupils, have a competitive edge. That's unfair."

Education Guardian asked over 150 HE institutions for clear advice on which A-level subjects they view favourably and which they rule out. xx responded, and we thank those that did. See their responses in detail at EducationGuardian.co.uk

Latest Nationwide figures show house prices averaged £161,602 last month, taking prices below their September 2009 level

The property market started the year with a "whimper rather than a bang", according to figures released by the Nationwide this morning, with house prices edging down by 0.1% in January.

Prices were 1.1% lower last month compared to January last year, producing an average price of £161,602. This is £1,161 lower than December's average and takes house prices back to below their September 2009 level.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said: "January's data does little to alter the picture of a sluggish market that has been evident since the summer. Indeed, the three-month-on-three-month measure of house prices, which is a better measure of the underlying trend, showed a fall of 0.5%, consistent with the gradual moderation in prices that has been in place since the summer of 2010.

"The outlook is still highly uncertain, but the most likely outcome is that the pattern of low transaction levels and prices moving sideways or modestly lower will continue through 2011."

He said that increases in food, transport and utility costs were hard for households to deal , and would have a dampening effect on demand for property, especially as persistantly high inflation increased the risk of interest rate rises.

Gardner also believes the Bank of England monetary policy committee will raise interest rates only gradually, and most likely in the second half of the year. "This in turn should have only a relatively modest impact on the housing market, especially since it is likely to take place against the backdrop of a strengthening economic recovery," he said.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist from IHS Global Insight, said: "The marginal seasonally-adjusted fall in house prices reported by the Nationwide is consistent with our view that house prices are headed down further in 2011, but are unlikely to crash.

"Although some support to house prices could well come from fewer properties coming on to the market, the fact remains that housing market activity is still very low compared to long-term norms and the economic fundamentals for house prices are largely unfavourable.

"We have long forecast that house prices are likely to fall by 10% from their peak 2010 levels. On the Nationwide's measure, house prices in January were 5% below their June 2010 peak level of £170,111, so we believe they are likely to fall by another 5% or so by the end of the year. This would take them down by a further £8,502 to £153,100."

• Opposition prepares for one million-strong protest
• Army pledges it will allow 'legitimate' protest
• Protesters play down role of Muslim Brotherhood
If you are in Egypt and have news of the protests please call +44(0)2033532959

9.46am:The Observer's foreign affairs editor, Peter Beaumont is in Tahrir Square. He sent these Twitter updates in the last few minutes:

Huge crowd in square. Hearing mobile phone net might come down again shortly

Searched 12 times by army and volunteers coming into square. Army leaflets ask for no violence

Soldiers frisking everyone going into tahrir sq but v dif feeling to friday, laid back not tense and no police

Egyptian army sent out txt message last night saying with egypt against thugs and thieves

Steady stream of people heading to Tahrir square. Scores of tanks on road to airport

9.40am: The march will go from Tahrir Square towards Mubarak's presidential palace, which is currently under heavy guard.

Here's the route:

9.35am: "Everyone is out there to deliver a clear message to the system that we are are not going to let go... we want our voices to be heard," a protester says in a audio clip he made before taking to the streets.

9.10am: Israel remains very twitchy about events in Egypt, and some feel betrayed by the Americans.

One comment by Aviad Pohoryles in the daily Maariv was headlined "A Bullet in the Back from Uncle Sam", according to Reuters. It accused Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of pursuing a naive, smug, and insular diplomacy heedless of the risks.
Who is advising them, he asked, "to fuel the mob raging in the streets of Egypt and to demand the head of the person who five minutes ago was the bold ally of the president ... an almost lone voice of sanity in a Middle East?"

Even the usually moderate Ha'aretz newspaper chose to splash (left) with a picture of an angry Muslim being held aloft in Cairo.

9.03am: Al-Jazeera is showing live pictures of tens of thousands of people gathering in Tahrir Square.

8.57am: "Everyone is coming" a protester in Tahrir Square predicts in this video shot yesterday. "We are not going anywhere until our demands our met," she said.

8.54am: Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director for Human Rights Watch, is concerned that the army is going back on its pledge about allowing the protest. Writing from Cairo he says:

This is the first time since the deployment of the military on Friday that the army has moved to limit protests. Cairo ring-road now also closed. So much for military's pledge not to interfere in the right of the people to express their legitimate grievances.

8.34am: "A lot of protesters are hoping and believing that this could be the final hours of the Mubarak regime," Jack Shenker reports from Cairo.

The million-person march to the presidential palace will take the protests to a new level, it is hoped, he says.

The regime's tactics to prevent people taking part, won't work, Jack predicts. "Tens of thousands of people have defied a strict night curfew after night," Jack says. "Right now in Tahrir, there is a huge presence, far bigger than it has been at this time. There are tens of thousands certainly. Thousands from different directions are streaming towards the square."

8.18am: Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director for Human Rights Watch, says the roads and rail services to Cairo have been cut.

He emails:

Army closed main roads between Cairo and Alexandria to prevent protesters from reaching mass protests today. Train services also closed.

The Guardian's Middle East expert Brian Whitaker says blocking off transport won't work. Writing on his own blog al-Bab, Whitaker writes:

With Egyptian protesters beginning a "million-person march" today – probably heading for the presidential palace – Mubarak's latest ploy is to shut down the country's entire rail network in the hope of keeping people away. But as with the night-time curfew, the banning of al-Jazeera and the internet shutdown, it's unlikely to have much effect on the protesters' determination.

8.05am:As the internet is down many Egyptians are resorting to a new Google phone service to spread word of the protest, via audio tweets.

Announcing the service on its blog, Google said:

Like many people we've been glued to the news unfolding in Egypt and thinking of what we could do to help people on the ground. Over the weekend we came up with the idea of a speak-to-tweet service—the ability for anyone to tweet using just a voice connection.

We hope that this will go some way to helping people in Egypt stay connected at this very difficult time. Our thoughts are with everyone there.

You can follow on a steady stream of audio Tweets (mostly in Arabic) @speak2tweet

Our technology editor, Charles Arthur, has more.

7.56am:Overnight the last of Egypt's main Internet service providers was cut off. The Noor Group had remained online even after Egypt's four main Internet providers Link Egypt, Vodafone/Raya, Telecom Egypt and Etisalat Misr were cut last Friday, AP reports.

But at about 11pm local time, the Noor Group became unreachable, according to the technology analyst Renesys.

7.48am: Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei said he is convinced Mubarak will go and he condemned the tactics used to keep him power.

In an interview with the Independent's Robert Fisk, ElBaradei, said:

When a regime withdraws the police entirely from the streets of Cairo, when thugs are part of the secret police, trying to give the impression that without Mubarak the country will go into chaos, this is a criminal act. Somebody has to be accountable. And now, as you can hear in the streets, people are not saying Mubarak should go, they are now saying he should be put on trial. If he wants to save his skin, he better leave.

He also attacked Britain's response to the Egypt protests.

Yesterday, I heard Mr Cameron saying that 'democracy is not an election, that it's 'block-building'. Well, everybody knows that. But how do you talk about building a judiciary, civil society – how do you talk about these 'building blocks' – under a dictatorship? You either have a civil society or you don't.

7.39am:A planned million-person march has started, but not yet with the turnout protesters had hoped for.

Al-Jazeera reports that "steady trickle" of protesters have been gathering in Tahrir Square.

Overnight, for the first time a small pro-Mubarak demonstration was also mounted, but it was tiny. CNN's Frederik Pleitgen tweeted: "Just saw pro Mubarak demo for the first time at information ministry. About 50 guys chanting with signs."

The Egypt's army gave a powerful boost to the opposition last night by announcing that it would not use force to silence "legitimate" demands for democratic reforms.

Meanwhile, in apparent attempt to soften popular anger, the Egyptian vice-president said president Hosni Mubarak had asked him to start a dialogue with all the country's political parties. According to state TV, Omar Suleiman said it would involve constitutional and legislative reforms.

Overnight there was much focus on the US response to the unrest. The White House said in a statement that the crisis should be settled by "meaningful talks". It also sent sent a retired senior diplomat, Frank Wisner, to Egypt to press the US case for democratic reforms to top Egyptian officials.

Barack Obama met Middle East experts yesterday as his administration tried to find a path to a post-Mubarak era. One of those expert was Heather Hurlburt, a former speech writer for Bill Clinton. She said all of those present thought that Mubarak would fall.

Speaking on Bloggingheads TV she said: "There is not anyone in Washington, both inside and outside government, who thinks Mubarak is going to survive." She pointed out that the post Mubarak era would reveal "sad and ugly" truths about American's role in Egypt in the last 30 years. She added that the key question what happens next? "It isn't just a question of Mubarak going. He will go when the army decides he will go. The real question at this point, is do you have a transition to a moderately less reviled figure like Sulieman or a transition to a more open democratic system."

Hurlburt's discussion with the right wing foreign policy analyst Eli Lake is a good primer on US policy towards Egypt.

The Guardian's American editor at large Michael Tomasky explain why "Obama is in no position to offer the moral thunder the protesters and their supporters everywhere crave".

Here's a round up of more of the latest news and analysis:

• The Muslim Brotherhood has vowed to "respect the will of the Egyptian people" if Mubarak's regime falls, amid concern from western leaders that religious extremism might proliferate following the anti-government uprising. Tony Blair, the Middle East peace envoy, warned that Egypt might take a backward step "into a very reactionary form of religious autocracy". But his words carried limited resonance in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood – the country's largest opposition force – has played little more than a walk-on role in the unprecedented protests.

• The Muslim Brotherhood may gain power by default, if the west attempts to thwart the radical nature of the uprising, argues Middle East analyst Kenan Malik

• About 10,000 people streamed into Tahrir Square, yesterday, paying no heed to the curfew which was today brought forward to 3pm. They were scathing about the new government announced by the president. "This is all nonsense," said protester Omar el-Demerdash, 24, a research executive. "The demand is clear: We want Mubarak and his men to get out."

• Our Middle East editor Ian Black asseses the chances of the unrest spreading to Syria, Jordan, Libya, Algeria, Yemen and the Gulf states.

• Fears that the turmoil in Egypt could disrupt oil shipments passing through the Suez canal and engulf the Middle East drove the price of Brent crude oil through the $100 barrier for the first time in over two years.

• Egypt has the potential to take Pakistan's place as the country posing the greatest threat to Britain's security, according to intelligence analysts.

Prime minister makes admission during visit to London hospital in face of opposition to GPs policy

David Cameron spoke yesterday of concern within his own family over the government's planned reforms of the health service, admitting publicly that even his brother-in-law was not convinced by the changes.

Dr Carl Brookes is married to the prime minister's sister Tania and works as a cardiologist in Basingstoke for the North Hampshire NHS trust.

Speaking during a visit to a London hospital, Cameron raised the topic himself, telling assembled doctors and nurses: "My brother-in-law is a hospital doctor and he says 'you're giving too much power to the GPs, and hospitals will be disadvantaged.'"

Meanwhile, more than half of GPs responding to a survey by the Royal College of General Practitioners said they were concerned that the proposed health reforms would not lead to improvements in care for patients. The findings, from an online poll of 1,800 medics, are a blow to the government as family doctors are central to its plans – with £80bn of NHS spending handed over to GPs to purchase care for patients.

Cameron yesterday appeared to suggest the NHS might not be free in the future if the changes did not go ahead, saying the health service would become "increasingly unaffordable" and that the "biggest risk" would be inaction.

"If you look at the growth of the elderly population, look at the new drugs that are coming on stream, the new treatments, if we keep the system we have now and don't make changes to cut bureaucracy and waste, I think it will become increasingly unaffordable," he said.

As parliament began debating the health and social care bill, the shadow health secretary, John Healey, said: "The bill is a false prospectus. In the Tories' new NHS, it is national competition regulation which will call the shots, not GPs or patients. If private companies bid to undercut local hospital services, GPs will have to take the work away from the hospital. This is not what people expected when David Cameron promised to protect the NHS." Andrew Lansley, the health secretary, said the coalition's reforms were picking up from where Labour failed to implement their policy of modernisation.

Storm expected to slam into coast of Queensland tomorrow, affecting communities already saturated from months of flooding

Authorities have scrambled to airlift hospital patients from the path of a cyclone roaring toward waterlogged north-eastern Australia and urged low-lying communities to evacuate because of potentially deadly flash floods.

Cyclone Yasi was expected to slam into the coast of Queensland state on Wednesday as a Category 4 storm and dump up to 3ft (1 metre) of rain on communities already saturated from months of flooding.

"This storm is huge and it is life-threatening," Queensland premier Anna Bligh said. "I know many of us will feel that Queensland has already borne about as much as we can bear when it comes to disasters and storms, but more is being asked of us and I am confident that we are able to rise to this next challenge."

Yasi was barrelling towards the Queensland state coast as a strong Category 3 storm with winds up to 137 mph (220 kph), but was expected to turn into a Category 4 storm with wind gusts up to 155mph (250km/h) by Wednesday.

Bligh said the military would airlift 250 patients from the waterfont Cairns Base and Cairns Private hospitals to Brisbane, the state capital.

Although there were no mandatory evacuation orders yet, residents in waterfront and low-lying areas from the cities of Cairns to Townsville were being advised to leave.

Ian Stewart, the state's disaster co-ordinator, said many people were deciding on their own to evacuate and that he would discuss with mayors whether forced evacuations were needed.

"In reality, we would like people to get as far south as possible, as quickly as possible, without of course breaking the rules," he told reporters.

Another storm, Cyclone Anthony, hit Queensland early yesterday but quickly weakened and did little more than uproot some trees and damage power lines.

Queensland has already suffered flooding since heavy rains started in November. The floodwaters killed 35 people, damaged or destroyed 30,000 homes and businesses and left Brisbane under water for days.

Yasi is expected to strike farther north, sparing Brisbane and other towns that suffered the worst of the recent flooding. Still, Bligh said the storm's path could change, and residents up and down the coast needed to prepare.

"We could see very powerful flash flooding that will be dangerous and potentially deadly," said Bligh, who described the storm as one of the largest and most significant cyclones the state has ever seen.

Hamilton Island off Queensland began evacuating tourists yesterday and other resort islands were considering doing the same, Bligh said. Some nursing homes along the coast were evacuating, and residents of low-lying areas were urged to leave their homes until the storm has passed.

"We're telling anyone in the low-lying areas they need to be moving today and find another place to go to," said Val Schier, mayor of the northern Queensland city of Cairns.

Stewart said residents should be prepared with flashlights, food and water.

"Please make no mistake, this storm is a deadly event," Stewart said. "Now is the time to act."

Report expected to recommend Ofsted is stripped of some powers following Baby P tragedy

Ofsted's role in investigating suspicious deaths of young children is likely to come under critical scrutiny today in the aftermath of the Baby P tragedy.

A report commissioned by the Department of Education will propose ways of simplifying child protection inspection procedures following the death of Peter Connelly in Tottenham, north London, in 2007.

The paper by Eileen Munro, a professor of social policy at the London School of Economics, is one of a series of inquiries into the way in which safeguarding of children is conducted.

Ofsted's main function is to carry out reviews of schools to ensure they meet specified academic criteria, but the inspectorate also has the less publicised role of examining the performance of children's social workers.

In an interview with Community Care magazine, Munro said: "In my second report, to be submitted to ministers ... I shall outline some potential areas for reform."

One of the questions she will address, she said, "relates to one of the government's top priorities – getting rid of the unnecessary bureaucracy that can obstruct those working with children, young people and families. I would like to hear the widest possible range of views, from those working within the child protection system about the precise forms, processes, protocols, regulations and rules that get in the way."

She said she was also looking at "the environment in which child protection professionals operate, how their performance is monitored and the ways they are held accountable, both publicly and within their organisations."

The 17-month-old toddler died at the hands of his mother, Tracey Connelly, her violent partner, Steven Barker, and his brother Jason Owen. Peter had suffered more than 50 injuries despite receiving 60 visits from social workers, doctors and police over an eight-month period.

According to The Times newspaper today, Munro is expected to recommend that Ofsted should be stripped of the powers to evaluate serious case reviews into such situations because its approach is too bureaucratic.

It reports that the Munro's study will find that Ofsted's inquiries often focus on whether "rules and procedures have been met but not whether this has helped children".

Labour agrees to abandon filibustering campaign after climbdown over redrawing parliamentary constituencies

A two-week standoff in the House of Lords between Labour and the coalition over a constitutional reform bill was partially resolved today when ministers agreed to a key opposition demand on shrinking the House of Commons.

Labour agreed to abandon a filibustering campaign, which had forced peers to sleep on camp beds in committee rooms during overnight sessions, after the government announced that it would allow limited public inquiries when parliamentary constituencies are redrawn.

Ministers climbed down after it became clear that the government could not deliver on a threat made at the weekend to break convention in the House of Lords by bringing 15 days of debate to an end through a "guillotine" motion.

David Cameron, who had been spoiling for a fight with Labour, was advised that such a motion would be defeated after Baroness D'Souza, leader of the non-party crossbench peers, had said that peers "might as well go home and cease to exist" if a guillotine was imposed. D'Souza tabled a compromise amendment today which prompted Labour to say that it would allow the bill to complete its committee stage by Wednesday evening.

But Lord Falconer of Thoroton, the former lord chancellor, said Labour could not guarantee that the bill would reach its third and final reading stage in the House of Lords by a deadline of Monday 14 February because the party was still demanding more concessions. "This is not the end of the cold war, it is more like detente," he joked tonight.

The parliamentary voting system and constituencies bill, which is one of the most important elements of the coalition's constitutional reform programme, contains key elements for the Lib Dems and the Tories. It is designed to pave the way for a referendum on an alternative vote, due to be held in May, which was the main Lib Dem win in the coalition negotiations last year. It is also designed to deliver a key Tory manifesto pledge by reducing the House of Commons from 650 to 600 MPs by equalising the size of parliamentary constituencies to around 76,000 voters.

The government had been prepared to take the unprecedented step of imposing a guillotine motion in the House of Lords because the legislation needs to reach the statute book by 16 February to allow a referendum on AV to be held by May. The Boundary Commission also needs early notice to redraw parliamentary boundaries to take account of a smaller House of Commons.

The government abandoned its attempt to curtail the debate after all sides accepted the amendment from the crossbench peers. This will allow a public inquiry to be held on the redrawing of a parliamentary constituency if the Boundary Commission declares that one is necessary.

But Labour is still threatening to block the bill during its next stages unless the government gives ground in two further areas by agreeing to:

• Vary the size of the new parliamentary constituencies by 10% above or below the electoral quota size of around 76,000 voters. This would mean that constituencies could vary in size from 83,600 voters to 68,400 voters. Under the government's plans, constituencies can only be varied in size by 5% either way of the 76,000 quota. This means that a constituency should contain no more than 79,800 voters and no less than 72,200 voters.

• Establish a commission to make an assessment after the passage of the bill as to whether 600 is the right size for the House of Commons.

Falconer, who described the possibility of a guillotine as "an abomination", told peers that Labour needed the extra concessions to guarantee the bill's progress.

"Focusing only on the key issues on report, and employing the economy and focus your lordships will expect at report and later at third reading, the further timetable depends on further agreement on substantive issues between the parties. The crossbenches have played a critical part in getting us to the good point we are on the substantive issues. We commit ourselves to work hard now to try to reach the necessary further agreement."

Lord Strathclyde, the Tory leader of the house, told peers: "The government will be bringing forward a package of concessions at report stage of the bill and I'm sure that the whole house will welcome that. We are in the welcome position of having an agreement to complete committee stage by the end of Wednesday this week.

"But equally I am sure that I have no need to remind the house that we need to return this bill to the Commons by the end of Monday 14 February – this is two weeks today – if the referendum is to be held on May 5. From the soundings I have taken I feel confident the majority of members in all parts of the house share this aim."

The crossbench peers withdrew their amendment after the government accepted its premise.

D'Souza told peers: "It is perhaps unusual for a crossbencher to intervene at this late stage of a bill, particularly in a bill which has become so politicised. Crossbenchers are, in fact, independent and not politically aligned.

"However, something of an impasse had been reached towards the end of last week and I was encouraged by one or two people to see if there was any way in which we might play a useful role. I do so with great humility. The other thing that perhaps has moved me, certainly, and a number of other crossbenchers was the shadow or the threat of anything approaching a 'closure motion' in this house."

The agreement showed weaknesses on both the coalition and Labour sides. The coalition backed down after it became clear that opposition among its own peers and the crossbenchers meant that the guillotine motion would not pass. But Labour had to give ground and reach a deal because crossbenchers were losing patience with its aggressive tactics.

Outgoing Taoiseach and ousted leader of the Fianna Fail party, has said he was quitting his constituency voluntarily

Brian Cowen, the outgoing Taoiseach and ousted leader of the Fianna Fail party, has confirmed that he will not stand in Ireland's forthcoming general election.

In a radio interview, the former finance minister who has led the country at the head of a coalition government since 2008, said he was quitting his Laois/Offaly constituency voluntarily.

"I have to take things into consideration now in the context of the fact of having been Taoiseach and leader of the party and former leader and giving a break to the new leader," he told Midlands Radio.

"It was not a question of Micheal [Martin, the new Fianna Fail leader] expecting me to stand aside." Cowen said he had also taken his family's wishes into consideration.

He will formally dissolve the Dail (Ireland's parliament) on Tuesday and name a date for the eagerly awaited general election.

More than 30 TDs, members of the Dail, have announced that they will not be standing - ensuring that there will be a major change around in political figures during a contest expected to be dominated by recrimination over country's debt-burdened economy.

Fianna Fail, consistently the most successful political party in western Europe over recent decades, is expected to lose large numbers of seats.

An opinion poll at the weekend in the Sunday Business Post put support for Fine Gael and Labour, the main opposition parties favoured to form the next government at 33 percent and 23 percent respectively. Fianna Fail had dropped to 16 percent.

Earlier, Martin presented a 21-member frontbench team, whichincludes three election candidates who have yet to win a parliamentary seat. Reflecting the battle for survival that Fianna Fail candidates face, two of Martin's team, new deputy leader Mary Hanafin and new health spokesman Barry Andrews, are competing in the same parliamentary district.

Red light cameras are helping drivers remember that red means stop and are saving lives, according to a new study out Tuesday by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

Governor Pat Quinn on Monday made Illinois the 16th U.S. state to give spousal rights to same-sex couples by signing into law a measure allowing civil unions.

Weeks after the shooting in Tucson, sellers at an Arizona gun show allowed undercover investigators hired by New York City to buy semiautomatic pistols even after they said they probably couldn't pass a background check, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Monday.

Pimps will traffic thousands of under-age prostitutes to Texas for Sunday's Super Bowl, hoping to do business with men arriving for the big game with money to burn, child rights advocates said.

An inmate suspected of strangling a female guard with a microphone cord in a prison chapel during an escape attempt is a rapist who once doused a woman in gasoline and set her on fire, raising more questions about why the officer was alone and unarmed at the time of the attack.

A Texas woman cited as the world's oldest person has died at the age of 114.

Two lesbian high school students who fought for the right to walk together as part of a royalty court made their entrances Monday to the cheers of hundreds of classmates.